Oil Prices Expected to Hit $86 in Q3 Due to Increased Summer Fuel Demand
By Thea Felicity
Jun 10, 2024 10:37 AM EDT
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Jun 10, 2024 10:37 AM EDT
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After experiencing a decline last week, CNBC reported that oil prices increased on Monday, June 10. This rise was driven by predictions from Goldman Sachs that there would be a substantial oil shortage due to a higher demand for fuel during the summer.
As a result, crude oil futures experienced modest gains because analysts expect the increased need for transportation and cooling in the third quarter will lead to a supply deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs analysts expect Brent crude to rise to $86 per barrel in the third quarter, setting a price floor of $75 and a ceiling of $90 for the year. This projection comes despite last week's OPEC+ decision to increase production from October through September 2025, which initially led to a decline in oil prices.
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At the moment, Statista reveals that the current energy prices for West Texas Intermediate are $76.38 per barrel, Brent is $80.44 per barrel, RBOB Gasoline is $2.39 per gallon, and Natural Gas (July contract) costs $3.09 per thousand cubic feet, up 5.96% (year-to-date gain of 22.6%)
Although OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production, it still has the option to adjust this decision if necessary to maintain market stability.
Investors have held the fewest long positions (bets that prices will rise) in oil futures since 2011, while short positions (bets that prices will fall) are near record highs. Analysts think, however, that this "pessimism" is unwarranted and expects oil inventories to decrease and demand to rise by 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day through August.
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