Egypt saw a gain of 4.2% in stocks on Monday despite of the ongoing political turmoil in the country. The Egyptian EGX 30 Price Return Index dropped to only 0.3%at closing. According to headlines, President Mohammed Morsi refused to give up his power; however, the military was seizing control of the Egyptian government gradually.
Stephen Bailey-Smithtries of Standard Bank, who was interested about the "constructive response", has offered a possible explanation for the unexpected gain. According to Bailey-Smithtries' note, "We suspect the equity market rally is derived from local buying rather than foreign. Certainly, it is hard to find local equity market participants who felt the Mursi administration would deliver a supportive environment for equities over either the short or medium term. The military ultimatum makes it less likely that a Mursi administration will dominate the political economy going forward and it also makes it less likely that the present political impasse and economic decay will continue, preventing the country sliding into more comprehensive socio-political disorder."
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