The El Niño weather phenomenon is causing a decline in agriculture production and crops, especially in Asia, leading to sugar shortage worldwide. The decrease in production has also caused a rise in prices of commodities including sugar and also cocoa.
According to Bloomberg, in the 2016-17 season world raw sugar consumption will exceed production by 4.95 million metric tons. The number is 19 percent more than the January forecast released by Green Pool Commodity Specialists, an Australian-based researcher.
The forecast by Green Pool also revealed their projections for the 2015-16 shortage, where the company increased its estimate of the shortage for the period. The researchers now expect a deficit of 6.65 million tons, compared with the estimation of 4.14 million tons forecasted earlier.
The shortage will also inevitably cause an increase in sugar prices this year, with futures in New York climbing to the highest since October 2014. So far, the raw sugar prices have risen 9.6 percent.
Green Pool explained that the El Niño has impacted many Asian cane crops and, in turn, reduced overall production for sugar. "The drought impact is anticipated to carry forward into 2016-17 because it has reduced planting, reduced plant health, and reduced plant care," the company wrote.
Asia is particularly affected by El Niño, the warm weather event in the Pacific Ocean. According to Independent, the drought caused by El Niño had hit sugar production in India, Thailand and China for this season and next. India, the world's second largest cane producer has also limited planting for the upcoming crop because of the below average rainfall that has hit production.
The decrease in production happened while demand for sugar has been on a steady rise, as reported by Gizmodo. Until recently, before the El Niño, the supply of sugar has also been on a steady rise, keeping up with the global demand. The world has even experienced five years of big sugar surpluses before the extreme weather condition brought by El Niño. This was reportedly the first recent year of no surplus at all, with even a very small shortage, as the shortage is predicted to be even bigger next year. So far, the gap has widened 19 percent since January.
The drought caused by El Niño weather phenomenon has hit cane production, causing a big global shortage after five years of surpluses. Even though the El Niño is almost over, the shortage in production is projected to last into the next season because of the reduced planting and plant health caused the weather condition.
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