Disney's 'Moana 2' Expected to Lead Post-Pandemic Thanksgiving Box Office Recovery With $120M-$150M

Analysts predict Moana 2 will be Disney's comeback hit this Thanksgiving.

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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 25: View of atmosphere at the Los Angeles Premiere of Walt Disney Animation Studios' "Moana 2" at the El Capitan Theater in Hollywood, California on November 25, 2024. Jesse Grant/Getty Images for Disney

After 'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II's record box office this week, they will be accompanying another hit this Thanksgiving, with Disney 'Moana 2' expected to be the highest-grossing film during the holiday since the pandemic.

Currently, the US domestic box office is on a strong recovery from estimates alone, possibly raking in hundreds of millions in ticket sales.

In particular, CNBC shared that Moana will be earning between $120-150 million in the US and Canada combined, which could exceed $200 million, with Wicked and Gladiator still showing.

According to box office experts, the perfect storm of Moana 2, Wicked, and Gladiator II will hit theaters. The movies appeal to a wide audience, something the industry has failed to achieve in the post-pandemic period. Thanksgiving box office sales last topped $200 million in 2019. In 2018, the record was $315 million. Analysts say this holiday season will set the tone for year-end box office performance.

Disney in the Box Office

For Disney, Moana 2 could signify a much-needed win after Wish's flopped entry into the box office last year, per VCPost. The company once dominated the Thanksgiving box office with hits like 'Moana,' from 8 years ago, and 'Frozen II,' from 5 years ago. Recent releases such as 'Encanto' and 'Strange World' fell short of expectations.

Moana 2 arrives with strong momentum, following the success of 'Inside Out 2' earlier this year, which grossed over $1 billion globally, according to VCPost as well.

Thanksgiving is critical for theaters as it drives year-end ticket sales. Analysts believe the performance of these blockbuster films will significantly influence the annual box office revenue, determining whether the industry views 2024 as a success. For experts, the film industry is looking to deliver one of the most profitable holiday weekends in years after multiple failed attempts and industry strikes.

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