Trump's love for agriculture can't help America's near-death beef industry as there aren't enough cattle to be seen. It also does not help that prices are skyrocketing, and environmental conditions are getting worse.
This year is considered the smallest herd in US history since 1961, and experts suggest things will not improve on other fronts with issues related to tariffs and immigration reform.
Challenges in Cattle Farming
According to Bloomberg, the beef industry is in crisis. The low prices for years have now been compounded by drought and the rising costs of farming, which makes it difficult for cattle farmers to make decisions. Many are selling more females and therefore reducing their ability to rebuild herds. Hybrid dairy-beef breeding to meet demand is even a common practice among some milk producers. While cattle prices are high now, many ranchers cannot afford to expand their operations because they have taken financial losses for years.
Beef industry recovery won't arrive before 2027 since borrowing costs are still quite high, and pastures remain very poor to plant new cattle. US herd had nearly contracted 40% from a record level back in 1975. In total, this downturn remains one of the worst, including farm crisis back in the 1980s. Therefore, huge cattle companies such as Tyson Foods have lost billions of dollars in the process due to a severe lack of cattle.
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Beef and Trump's Immigration and Tariff Policies
Trump's immigration policies and proposed tariffs further compound the uncertainty for the beef industry. Reuters previously reported that since foreign workers fill the meatpacking jobs, fewer immigrants may result in labor shortages and higher costs for companies like Tyson and JBS.
Although tariffs would protect US ranchers from foreign competition, they would probably drive up the price of beef and make it less affordable to consumers.
Even if tariffs help ranchers in the long term, it will not solve the immediate crisis. Beef prices are likely to rise and consumers will switch to chicken, and demand will continue to shift away from beef. The policies that Trump is going to bring into the office may revive the beef industry, but the problems the sector is facing are much bigger than any single policy can solve.
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