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Patients, doctors, and investors are eagerly awaiting data on Eli Lilly's experimental obesity pill, orforglipron, which could revolutionize the booming weight loss drug market.

The company intends to publish preliminary results from its late-stage clinical trials this year, with detailed findings anticipated in 2025.

Analysts predict orforglipron, a once-daily pill, could match the effectiveness and tolerability of Novo Nordisk's popular injections, Wegovy and Ozempic.

This needle-free alternative is highly anticipated, potentially alleviating supply shortages and increasing patient access to weight loss treatments.

"This could join a growing toolbox of medications for obesity, and it could be a game-changer," said Dr. Eduardo Grunvald, medical director for UC San Diego's Center for Advanced Weight Management.

If approved, orforglipron could strengthen Eli Lilly's position in the market. As the first oral GLP-1 drug, it has the potential to secure a large share of the $150 billion GLP-1 industry, with oral medications possibly making up $50 billion of that total.

Eli Lilly is currently leading the race in oral GLP-1 development, ahead of competitors like Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

"We are investigating orforglipron for the potential to bring a safe and effective treatment to people with these diseases who are looking for a convenient, oral option," Eli Lilly stated.

Orforglipron functions in a similar manner to Wegovy and Ozempic, targeting the GLP-1 gut hormone to help control appetite and regulate blood sugar levels.

However, being a non-peptide medication, it's absorbed more easily and doesn't require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus.

Orforglipron Nears 2026 Approval as Eli Lilly Bets Big on Obesity Pill

The pill's pricing remains uncertain, but its simpler manufacturing process could make it more accessible than the $1,000-per-month injections.

According to BusinessInsider, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks anticipates US regulatory approval by early 2026.

The company's $550 million "pre-launch inventory" charge indicates strong confidence in the drug's potential.

"That's a good indicator that they are comfortable with what they're seeing across the trials," BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman told CNBC.

Eli Lilly's success with Zepbound and Mounjaro, targeting both GLP-1 and GIP hormones, has already propelled it to become the world's largest pharmaceutical company, with a market cap of $814 billion.

The company reported $45 billion in revenue in 2024, largely driven by its diabetes and obesity products.

Orforglipron's main advantage is its convenience. Seigerman noted that the industry is shifting toward more personalized treatments tailored to individual patient needs, moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach.

Unlike injections, which require specific storage and administration, orforglipron has no dietary restrictions and offers a needle-free option. It could also open new markets in countries with limited cold supply chains for injections.

Patients seeking maintenance doses or those tired of injections could benefit from switching to the pill.

However, some may prefer the simplicity of weekly injections. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger suggests the pill might be more suitable for overweight or "modestly obese" individuals, while those with higher BMIs may benefit more from injectables.

The phase three trial will primarily assess the pill's tolerability, with a focus on gastrointestinal side effects. Schott noted that for orforglipron, nausea rates should remain below 25%, while vomiting rates should be in the low double digits for diabetes patients.

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