A Reuters report said that despite the initial threat of foreign investment outflows in emerging markets due to the decision of the US Federal Reserve to taper its monetary stimulus, the countries belonging to such emerging markets like Turkey and India should hope that such will elicit moves by their governments to undertake reforms on its economic policies. The report explained that this then, will result to the countries being insensitive to global capital shifts.
The Fed will begin to wind down its $85 billion-a-month money-printing program this month, and Turkey, India and other countries belonging in emerging markets had been seeing pull outs of foreign investments. Provisional data by EPFR Global showed that around $30 billion departed from emerging bond and equity funds. Emerging market countries were seen t be dependent on foreign inflows in order to fill its balance-of-payment gaps.
UBS strategist Manik Narain said, "Policymakers are under pressure to implement reforms that were put on the back burner. Tapering is at least getting that narrative going. It's too early to position for it, but if we do get reform it could be the start of the rebirth of emerging markets."
Reuters said that despite the fact that these countries had experienced similar crises before, only a few will be able to learn. The report pointed out that Mexico and India, for example, had started to carry out its reforms, with the latter shrinking its budget deficits, shearing off subsidies and raising energy tariffs. The others, on the other hand, might not follow suit due to elections in several countries, which will happen this year. Proposed reforms in South Africa or Russia might not happen due to robust prices for their metals and oil exports.
Barclays' head of EEMEA research Christian Keller said, "(The volatility) has spurred reform in some countries, but it's not EM-wide, that's for sure."
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