A forecast model from the Federal Reserve of Atlanta on Wednesday suggested the U.S. economy is barely growing in the first quarter following an unexpectedly steep 1.4 percent drop in durable goods orders in February.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast, which gained attention among traders in recent days because it well below what many economists have forecast, showed growth in U.S. gross domestic product is running at 0.2 percent, down from 0.3 percent on March 17.
"Following this morning's advance report on durable goods manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts for real equipment investment and real inventory investment declined slightly," the Atlanta Fed said about the latest reading on its website.
The GDPNow calculates the GDP using methods similar to the federal government's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The latest GDPNow figure is well below the tracking estimates among Wall Street's top banks, whose economists downgraded their earlier first-quarter GDP forecasts in reaction to the disappointing durable goods figures.
Earlier, Goldman Sachs lowered its first-quarter GDP view to 1.8 percent, JPMorgan pared its outlook to 1.5 percent and Barclays shaved its forecast to 1.2 percent.
The government will release its final GDP reading for the fourth quarter of last year at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT) on Friday. The 71 analysts polled by Reuters expected fourth-quarter GDP likely be revised up to 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent.
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