Japan should aim to make nuclear energy account for between 20 and 22 percent of the country's electricity mix by 2030, with renewable energy making up slightly more, the industry ministry said on Tuesday.
The proposal is likely to be unpopular among a public that opinion polls show has consistently opposed atomic energy since the three meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi plant north of Tokyo in 2011.
It would, however, constitute a shift away from nuclear power, which supplied nearly 30 percent of Japan's electricity before the Fukushima crisis, the world's worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986.
All Japan's reactors are currently closed pending safety checks by a new regulator set up after the Fukushima crisis highlighted lax regard for rules along with cosy links between industry and those meant to monitor security.
The government is proposing to make renewables account for 22-24 percent of electricity generation by 2030, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) set at 27 percent and coal 26 percent.
Mutsuyoshi Nishimura, a former Japanese ambassador to UN climate negotiations, said the proposal on nuclear was unlikely to ever be realized, given the lack of public support, along with recent court cases that have cast doubt on the future of some reactors.
Many reactors will have to be retired because they will have reached the government's lifetime limit of 40 years before 2030, unless they get special exemptions.
"The maximum we would expect is 15 percent for nuclear in the energy mix in 2030, if all plants are to be restarted and the 40 years rule is strictly observed," Nishimura said, adding "the figure for renewables demonstrates a sheer lack of vision".
The shutdown of reactors has pushed coal and LNG consumption to record highs, causing costs to soar and adding to Japan's carbon emissions.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which oversees the power sector, has been holding panel meetings on the energy mix since January.
Two nuclear plants have cleared the main safety hurdle for restarts but the courts have prevented one from restarting. The other has been allowed to go ahead, adding to the confusion over the outlook for nuclear.
"I think the final energy mix plan will be a bit less nuclear, a bit more alternatives, to create a compromise," said Polina Diyachkina, a senior analyst at Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan).
"The reality is that the reliance on thermal power generation will remain quite high," she said.
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