It has been nine months since OPEC made a choice to abandon its production target unalterable and pursue market share rather than trying to prop up prices, the group is now faced with a set of complicated issues and decisions going forward.
OPEC and its most powerful Saudi Arabian member had been defeated by the collapse in oil prices along with the strength of U.S. shale. Although U.S. oil production has leveled off it has not extremely declined. The total income of OPEC members suddenly fell together with the price of crude oil.
Saudi Arabia is under extreme pressure and the Saudi government is thinking of cutting down expenditures by an astonishing 10% as it looks to stop deficiency in the budget almost amounting to 20% of GDP.
The pang is evident in various ways. The Kingdom will not only have to cut spending but also turned to the bond markets in a big way. Low oil prices have forced Saudi Arabia to issue bonds with maturities over a year for the first time in eight years, raising 35 billion riyals which (roughly $10 billion) so far in 2015.
Neil Atkinson, head analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence, told CNBC that oil prices have a tendency to fall even if there is abundant supply over increasingly questionable worldwide demand. However, despite no signs of this trend going away soon, he doesn't expect a coordinated cut by OPEC.
"If there were to be an OPEC meeting, it could only be with the agreement of Saudi Arabia," Atkinson said. That would represent an extraordinary reversal - a screeching handbrake turn if you like - as far as their policy is concerned."
All the damage that has been inflicted upon Saudi Arabia made the world looking back towards Riyadh, especially after oil prices plummeted on "Meltdown Monday." The markets are trying to determine if Saudi may switch tactics in order to stop oil crash from worsening.
It would be considered more on wishful thinking rather than a possibility if Riyadh is going to think it over and decide now to restrict production in order to boost prices.
There is little chance that Riyadh will not pull back now Just as the worst pain is really beginning to set in for rival producers. Saudi Arabia sure is suffering from low prices but its rivals are worse hurt.
U.S. oil production shall continue to fall the longer Saudi Arabia holds out. While numerous companies have gone bankrupt already, and more are expected to come down the pike, this will in turn allow Saudi Arabia to acquire its goal of holding onto market share and lets the prices adjust on the back of competitor producers.
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