Elon Musk has once again ignited the ongoing debate over the future of artificial intelligence (AI), predicting that by 2029, AI will "probably be smarter than all humans combined."
However, Yann LeCun, Meta's chief AI scientist, has expressed skepticism regarding Musk's bold assertion.
Elon Musk Forecasts AI Intelligence to Surpass Humanity in 5 Years
Musk asserted his claim in a post he shared on his platform, X (formerly known as Twitter).
"AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year," he wrote, quoting another post. "By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined."
This proclamation aligns with Musk's persistent advocacy for AI advancement, despite the potential risks it poses.
Notably, Musk has previously voiced concerns about the existential threat posed by AI, highlighting its capacity to develop super-intelligence that could surpass human capabilities.
Musk's prediction also coincides with the views of other prominent figures in the field, including Ray Kurzweil, a renowned computer scientist and author.
Kurzweil has similarly forecasted AI surpassing human intelligence by 2029, although he acknowledges the skepticism surrounding such projections.
"We're not quite there, but we will be there, and by 2029 it will match any person. I'm actually considered conservative. People think that will happen next year or the year after," he said during an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast. "I actually said that in 1999. I said we would match any person by 2029. So 30 years, people thought that was totally crazy."
Yann LeCun Counters Musk's AI Projections
In response to Musk's forecast, LeCun, meanwhile, offered a pointed rebuttal by quoting the former's post on X, citing the limitations in current AI technology. LeCun dismissed Musk's assertion, particularly targeting Tesla's self-driving car project.
"No. If it were the case, we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice, like any 17-year-old." LeCun said. "But we still don't have fully autonomous, reliable self-driving, even though we (you) have millions of hours of *labeled* training data."
LeCun's skepticism extends beyond Musk's timeline, challenging the prevailing narrative of imminent AI superiority.
He emphasized that current AI models, despite their computational power, still fall short of achieving the cognitive abilities of animals like cats.
"A cat can remember, can understand the physical world, can plan complex actions, can do some level of reasoning - actually much better than the biggest LLMs," he argued.
Last month, at the World Government Summit in Dubai, LeCun highlighted the significant gap between current AI capabilities and human-level intelligence. He refuted claims that large language models could provide instructions for making chemical or biological weapons, clarifying that such assertions were false.
"We are really far from human-level intelligence," he said.
LeCun's viewpoint highlights a prevalent sentiment in the AI community, indicating the need for significant conceptual advancements to narrow the disparity between current AI capabilities and human-level intelligence.
Despite ongoing advancements in AI technology, fundamental challenges persist in replicating the nuanced cognitive functions exhibited by humans and animals.
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