Ukraine is now facing a new challenge in its battle against Russia's invasion. The country uses its drone technology to combat a vast expanse of oil refineries, many of which date back to the Soviet era.
According to some estimates, this year has seen successful attacks on at least nine major oil refineries, resulting in the shutdown of approximately 11 percent of Russia's total capacity.
With the tide turning in Moscow's favor on the front lines, Ukraine's drone campaign has emerged as a crucial aspect of its defense strategy, serving both symbolic and strategic purposes.
It grants Kyiv the capability to extend its reach into Russian territory and target a vital industry that plays a crucial role in the Kremlin's war efforts. According to Bloomberg, this industry supplies fuel to its armed forces and generates a significant flow of petrodollars into its financial resources.
Despite the drone campaign proving to be a success for Ukraine's military, which is much needed after a series of Russian gains on the battlefield, it poses a potential risk for world markets and Kyiv's Western allies.
The steady increase in international oil prices has been a cause for concern as fears grow over the potential impact of the attacks on major export facilities.
Although the damage caused by the attacks has been relatively minor, there is a growing worry that they could eventually target a significant facility.
Just six weeks ago, the government in Kyiv created the Unmanned Systems Forces, a specialized unit dedicated to drones.
At that time, Ukraine's armed forces had already demonstrated the effectiveness of the technology by successfully targeting and disabling several vessels in Russia's Black Sea fleet, as well as causing damage to an oil facility located on the Baltic Sea.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the effectiveness of drones in various battle scenarios, including land, sky, and sea. "Drones are highly effective in causing significant damage to the occupiers and their equipment."
Despite being a major exporter, the drone attacks have only had a modest impact on the oil market beyond Russia's borders. Crude futures have seen a slight increase due to growing concerns over geopolitical tensions.
Although European diesel prices have increased, they are still lower than the levels observed in February during the peak of the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.
If Ukrainian drones were successful in disrupting operations at Kirishi, it could have a significant impact on the production of diesel, which is mainly meant for export. This could potentially result in a change in the current situation. If Kyiv were to target Russia's main oil-export terminals in the Baltic or Black Seas, it could potentially cause further instability in crude markets.
"If Ukraine were to increase its pressure on Russian oil refining revenue, it could potentially focus on the crucial product export terminal infrastructure located at the ports of Primorsk or Novorossiysk," stated Mark Williams, the research director for short-term oils at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
Nevertheless, this could strain the already delicate relationship with its Western allies, given the significant impact it would have on global oil and refined product prices.
Currently, Ukraine's drone campaign is primarily aimed at causing economic disruptions in Russia. It aims to hinder the country's oil processing capabilities and weaken its air defenses.
Join the Conversation